预测师：2007年将是中间商艰难的一年

　　分析公司对于他们对2007年的预测在细节上也许有所不同。但是大家都赞同07年将是中间商难熬的一年。明年中间商很有可能在业务上达到适度增长，但同时要应对技术模式和商业模式上的巨变。

　　来自IDC和Forrester研究所的分析师预测，软件市场将会是增长最快的领域之一，但同时也将面临转变，包括对面向服务的构建(SOA)的更加关注以及对中小型商务的需求的增加。

　　转销商往往将专注于系统的集成或者将应用客户软件，网络或服务包的硬件销售作为主要的经销内容。因此硬件价格的下降和来自用户的对于管理服务的需求的增加将使得转销商们明年的经营面临很大的困难。

　　分析家指出，如果他们能调整自我，适应客户需求以及来自于大的软件供应商例如IBM，SAP和Oracle的竞争，则管理服务的供应商(MSPs)将会受益。

　　事实上，为了生存，中间商应当密切关注将更大参与到与他们在服务以及产品领域竞争的商家。

　　IDC和Forrester公司均指出，2007年市场的整体增长速度将保持在6%到7%;他们对于明年市场的增长速度的估计的不同之处在于，Forrester认为2007年市场的增长速度将比2006减慢，而IDC则认为是稍有加快的。

　　“让我觉得有意思的是，中等的增长速度完全掩盖了你到底是在哪个领域获得了强劲的增长或是令人激动的增长，”Frank Gens指出。他是IDC的研究部高级副主管。他说，这些高速增长的领域包括软件，外包以及服务器销售。

　　Mclellan来自地处康涅狄格州的Stamford的Gartner公司。他专长于IT市场营销和中间商战略。他表示并不确信VAR们和软件集成商们能够应对这次变化。

　　“三年以内，50%至80%的转销商们将会被淘汰出局。” McLellan预言;这个比例将是正常的VAR失败的三倍。她说，“将会出现三到五种商业形式，这些商业形式将得到飞速发展，并且它们都是与中间商竞争的。”

　　例如，即使那些从转售商转型为软件供应商(SaaS)的公司也不得不进行调整。他们原来的收入方式是在工程达到一个里程碑式的成果的阶段一次性的拿取一大笔钱。而现在，他们则可能是在一个长达数年的工程中以月金的形式领取酬金。McLellan说，微软公司估计，即使鼓励VAR们以服务和授权应用的形式提供他们的产品，SaaS的转销商们30个月以内恐怕也无法拿到生意。

　　“我和许多的软件供应商谈轮过，他们都在尝试寻找出路，如何来保持它们的中间商合作伙伴。”她说。

　　Forrester 研究所的分析家Andrew Bartels 说， IT行业增长速度的放慢与世界经济增长速度的放慢有关，Forrester公司估计，世界经济增长速度在07年将是6%，比今年预期的8%减慢了。

　　但是作为增长最强劲的领域的软件行业是一把双刃剑。拿Oracle和SAP这两个公司的企业资源管理(ERP)软件来举例，这两个公司一开始都是以SOA的形式提供服务的。

　　“在Oracle和SAP2007的SOA套件发布之前，你已经拥有了一些升级过的ERP系统，”Bartels说，“尽管如此，同时许多的公司在等着那些新的套件真正发布之后才开始做大的投资。”

　　Bartels指出，SMB们继续作为一个大市场而存在的同时，IT行业总投资的48%来自于员工在1000或1000以下的公司。这些公司倾向于规避风险，特别是在经济减速的时期。

　　但仍不清楚的是，那些由企业客户转向SMB们的卖方是尝试直接还是通过中间商来联系客户的。传统的方式中，中间商占有很重要的地位。

　　“我认为，这真地是因卖主而变得。”Bartels说，“我认为有些人会认识到软件行业需要为横向产业做出相应调整。”

　　据IDC的分析家Stephen Graham 称，IDC预测，2007年将是“超级瓦解”的一年中间商们必须自我调整以求生存。

　　他说，例如，系统集成商将需要更少地关注软件和硬件的转销，而更多的关注与咨询-帮助顾客了解那些新技术是什么以及为什么他们需要这些技术，而不是高速顾客如何使用这些技术。

　　但是McLellan说，这将是一个困难的转变过程。即便那些系统集成商一直就擅长于咨询服务，她说，“硬件仍然是大多数公司的业务的稳定部分。”

　　随着虚拟化和硬件领域的合并，硬件销售不断下降。集成商的咨询将成为主要业务。

　　随着像IBM和AT &T等公司加入竞争，降低价格，可控制服务的提供商将看到越来越少的生意，他们亟需将它们的注意力转向相关服务的提供。

　　“任何介入中间渠道的公司需要清楚他们周围的环境。我认为IT市场的成功越来越少地与传统的模式相关联，其将越来越多地和你所处的生态系统以及你如何与这个生态系统进行对话相联系。”Graham说。

　　例如，一个数据管理提供者可能与一家法律公司联手提供把法律承诺和其他非技术问题与数据管理结合起来的一种综合的产品。Graham说卖主以前已经指出那种合作，但他认为中间商开始想怎么去实现它。

　　同时，中间商公司应该仔细留意过去的发展，并在明年保证即使下降变化很大也能幸存下来。

　　Bartels说明年或者明年后年将是终端使用公司，利用主办或者外包的办法使风险达到最小的应用和SOA 模型试验的一个研究与开发阶段，

　　但是在2008 和2009年，他说公司能开始结合他们使用的SOA技术并把这些技术引入到网页中。

以下是原文

---

Analysts predict 2007 will be a tough year for the channel

Analyst companies differ on the details of their predictions for 2007, but all agree that it will be a difficult year for channel companies – which have a good chance for moderate growth but will have to deal with a flurry of changes in technology and business models.

The software market will be among the strongest areas but will undergo changes from an increased focus on service-oriented architecture (SOA) and the needs of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), according to the predictions of analysts from IDC and Forrester Research, Inc.

Declining hardware prices and increased demand from users for managed services could make times tough for resellers who focus on systems integration or who use hardware sales as the lead for solutions using custom software, networking or services packages.

Managed service providers (MSPs) may benefit from the disruption, analysts said, if they can adapt to not only changes in customer demands, but increased competition from large vendors like IBM, SAP and Oracle.

To survive, in fact, channel partners will have to keep a close eye on vendors who will increasingly compete with the channel on services as well as product

Both IDC and Forrester project that the market's overall growth will remain between 6% and 7% in 2007; disagreements on their estimations about the growth of this year's market means Forrester called this a decline compared to 2006, and IDC said it would be a very slight increase.

"To me the interesting story is, that [moderate growth] totally masks where you've got very strong growth and very exciting growth," said Frank Gens, senior vice president of research at IDC. Among those high-growth markets, he said, would be software, outsourcing and blade servers.

But Laura McLellan, of Stamford, Conn.-based Gartner, Inc. who specializes in IT marketing and channel strategies, isn't sure that VARs and integrators will be able to keep up with the disruption.

"Fifty to 80% of all resellers will be out of business in three years," McLellan predicted; that would be triple the usual rate of VAR failure, she said. "You've got at least three to five business models that are popping up that are all working against the channel."

For instance, even those who make the switch from reselling software to providing software as a service (SaaS) will have to adjust to being paid for an application in monthly payments spread over several years rather than in lump sums as they reach particular project milestones. Even while encouraging VARs to provide its products as a service as well as a licensed application, Microsoft estimates that SaaS resellers won't be able to break even until 30 months into a sale, McLellan said.

"I talk to a lot of software providers, and they're all trying to figure out how to keep their channel partners in business," she said.

Forrester research analyst Andrew Bartels said that a slowdown of the world economy will be responsible for lower growth in IT, which Forrester predicts will be 6%, down from an estimated 8% this year.

But the strongest sector, software development, is a double-edged sword. Take for example Oracle's and SAP's enterprise resource management (ERP) software, which both companies have started offering as SOA.

"You have some upgrading of ERP systems in advance of the arrival of SOA suites from Oracle and SAP in 2007," Bartels said. "At the same time, though, a lot of companies are waiting to do big investments until those new SOA suites really arrive."

And while SMBs continue to be a huge market – Bartels said 48% of total spending in IT comes from companies with 1,000 or fewer employees – those companies tend to avoid taking risks, especially during an economic slowdown, he said.

It's also unclear whether vendors shifting from enterprise customers to SMBs will try to reach their audience directly or go through the channel, which traditionally has been strong in that market.

"I think it really will vary by vendor," Bartels said. "I think some will recognize that the software still needs to be adapted for vertical industries."

IDC predicts that 2007 will be marked with "hyperdisruption," and channel members will have to adapt to survive, according to IDC analyst Stephen Graham.

For instance, he said, systems integrators will need to focus less on reselling software and hardware and more on consulting – helping customers determine what the new technologies are and why they need them, rather than how to implement them.

But McLellan said that even that could be a difficult transition. Even though systems integrators have traditionally been good at consulting services, she said, "hardware is still the foot in the door for a lot of them."

As hardware sales dip because of virtualization and hardware consolidation, so will the integrators' consulting leads.

Managed services providers could see less business from hosting, as companies like IBM and AT&T come in and cut prices, but should shift their attention to the services around the hosting.

"Any company that's involved in the channel needs to be basically aware of their surroundings, and I think success in the IT market is less and less about lining yourself with a traditional vendor to sell a part customization, and more and more about the ecosystem you're in and how you interact with that ecosystem," Graham said.

For instance, a data-management provider may team up with a legal firm to offer a comprehensive product that combines data management with legal compliance and other non-technical issues. Graham said vendors have pitched that kind of cooperation before, but he thinks channel companies are starting to figure out how to implement it.

At the same time, channel companies should be careful to look past just the next year and make sure they'll be able to survive changes even farther down the line.

Bartels said that the next year or two will be a research and development phase for end-user companies experimenting with new applications and SOA models, using hosted or outsourced solutions to minimize their own risk.

But in 2008 and 2009, he said, companies could start integrating technologies they were using as SOA and bringing them back on site.